Invaders from islands: thermal matching, potential or flexibility?

Abstract Native-range thermal constraints may not reflect the geographical distributions of species introduced from native island ranges in part due to rapid physiological adaptation new environments. Correlative ecological niche models thus underestimate potential invasive islands. The northern curly-tailed lizard (Leiocephalus carinatus) is established Florida, including populations north its range. Competing hypotheses explain this distribution: Thermal Matching (distribution reflects conditions range), Potential (species tolerates extremes absent range) and/or Flexibility (thermal tolerance local extremes). We rejected hypothesis by comparing developed vs. plus distributions; L. carinatus exists areas low suitability Florida as predicted native-distribution model. then compared critical limits two non-native evaluate and hypotheses: one matching range latitudes, another 160 km that experiences more frequent cold weather events. Critical minima population were lower than south, supporting hypothesis, whereas maxima did differ.